Thursday, January 8, 2009

Ecuador's foreign reserves drop as inflation rises

Ecuador's foreign reserves drop 26 percent in December, inflation hits 8.8 percent in 2008

QUITO, Ecuador (AP) -- Ecuador's foreign currency reserves fell 26 percent in December as the poor Andean nation maintains social spending programs in the face of falling oil prices, the central bank reported Thursday.
Ecuador now holds $4.5 billion in foreign reserves, $1.8 billion less than it held at the end of October 2008. The government projects a $1.5 billion deficit in 2009 because of low oil prices. Budget planners projected $85 per barrel but Ecuador's intermediate crude was trading at $26 a barrel on Thursday.

Oil is Ecuador's main export and accounted for 40 percent of the federal budget in 2008.
Boosted by high oil prices in the first half of the year, Ecuador's foreign currency reserves hit $6.5 billion in September, the most in eight years.
In other economic woes, the government announced that Ecuador finished 2008 with 8.8 percent inflation, a six-year high and more than double the country's 3.3 percent inflation rate of 2007.
High international fuel and food prices coupled with crop losses from heavy floods helped push inflation into the double digits by August, prompting President Rafael Correa to cap prices on some basic foods, prohibit rice exports and give subsidies and tax breaks to farmers.

Meanwhile, Ecuador's decision to partly default on and restructure its foreign debt has squeezed its access to international credit.
Analysts at Barclays Capital Research said Thursday that the depletion of government reserves also could be part of a Correa plan to buy back the defaulted bonds at discount prices. Ecuador plans to announce a restructuring package for the bonds this week.
Ecuadorean Fiscal Policy Observatory Director Jaime Carrera called the government's previous decision to lock social spending into the budget a "serious problem" due to the scarcity of credit and considers the planned $15 billion 2009 budget to be excessive.
Correa hopes to finance the deficit with credit from regional bodies like the Inter-American Development Bank and loans from Iran, Russia and China.

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Fitch Downgrades Lake Zurich Community Unit School Dist. No. 95 (IL) Bonds to 'AA-'

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--In the course of routine surveillance, Fitch Ratings downgrades Lake Zurich Community Unit School District No. 95's (the district) approximately $42.2 million in outstanding school building bonds to 'AA-' from 'AA+'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.

The downgrade is based on the substantial erosion in reserves from the very high levels seen previously. This decline was the result of pay-as-you go capital spending without significant growth in revenues, a slowdown in economic growth and enrollment declines over the last several years that are expected to continue. The revised 'AA-' rating considers the district's improvement in adoption of GAAP basis accounting, financial operations, satisfactory reserves even after sizable drawdowns, above-average income levels, moderate debt burden, and manageable future capital needs.
The district is located in Lake County, whose economy is centered on services, manufacturing and retail trade. Economic indicators are mixed; while personal income levels are above-average relative to the state and the nation, the unemployment rate has recently increased and now exceeds the nation's. The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's expectation of continued financial stability despite continuing enrollment declines.

The district serves about 36,000 residents primarily of Lake Zurich Village, in a suburban area approximately 37 miles northwest of downtown Chicago, IL. With approximately 6,036 students in 2008, enrollment has declined on average 1.1% annually in the past six years, due to the district's mature development stage and the impact of declining national birth rates. As a result, the district projects losing approximately 50 to 60 students per year. The district will address enrollment declines in the near term by closing one of its schools, thereby generating substantial savings for the district in maintenance and capital repairs.

The district has employed three different auditors in the last five years, which makes tracking changes in the district's financial profile difficult. However, it is evident that the district's financial condition weakened considerably through 2006, exemplified through unreserved educational fund balances of approximately $431,000 or .8% of expenditures in fiscal 2006. Since then the district's financial position has improved with unreserved educational fund balances increasing to $1.3 million and $4.4 million, or 2.4% and 7.6% of expenditures in fiscal 2007 and 2008, respectively. As there is some flexibility between the educational and operations and maintenance (O&M) funds, it is important to note that the district demonstrates a satisfactory unreserved level of 12.5% of expenditures for fiscal 2008 when both funds are aggregated.
Audited fiscal 2008 results indicate a $3.2 million surplus for the educational fund evidencing the district's successful implementation of pro-active financial management policies geared toward increasing the educational fund balance and reserves. The district has reduced labor costs through contractual agreements limiting the amount of annual salary increases for its employees for the next 5 years. In addition, the district has reduced health care costs through increases in prescription drug and office visit co-payments for its employees. The district has also improved its budgeting process enabling stronger oversight through accurate future revenue and expenditure estimates.

While the educational fund balance is improving, the district is also focused on increasing reserve levels for the O&M fund by maintaining a stable tax rate in the O&M fund and simultaneously adjusting the educational fund rate as well as other rates to compensate for the effects of the Illinois property tax extension limitation law (PTELL). The district anticipates that the adjustment in tax rates for the O&M fund will result in an additional $3 million for the O&M fund in fiscal 2009 and $1.5 million in subsequent years designated for capital repairs.
The district does not have any near-term plans to issue additional debt and will continue to fund short-term capital needs on a pay-as-you-go basis. The district's direct debt levels equal a moderate $1,944 per capita and 1.37% of market value. Issuance by overlapping jurisdictions results in an overall debt burden equal to $3,706 per capita and 2.6% of market value.

Note: Fitch issued an exposure draft on July 31, 2009 proposing a recalibration of tax-supported and water/sewer revenue bond ratings which, if adopted, may result in an upward revision of this rating (see Fitch research 'Exposure Draft: Reassessment of the Municipal Ratings Framework'). At this time, Fitch is deferring its final determination on municipal recalibration. Fitch will continue to monitor market and credit conditions, and plans to revisit the recalibration in the first quarter of 2009.
Fitch's rating definitions and the terms of use of such ratings are available on the agency's public site, www.fitchratings.com. Published ratings, criteria and methodologies are available from this site, at all times. Fitch's code of conduct, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, affiliate firewall, compliance and other relevant policies and procedures are also available from the 'Code of Conduct' section of this site.

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Fitch Places Detroit GOs and Related Obligations on Rating Watch Negative

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Fitch Ratings removes the Negative Rating Outlooks from the following Detroit, Michigan bond ratings and places them on Rating Watch Negative:

--$541 million unlimited tax general obligation (ULTGO) bonds 'BBB';
--$154 million limited tax general obligation (LTGO) bonds 'BBB';
--$34 million Detroit Economic Development Corp. resource recovery revenue refunding bonds series 2001A 'BBB+';
--$1.5 billion Detroit Retirement Systems Funding Trust certificates of participation (COPs) series 2005-A, 2005-B, 2006-A and 2006-B 'BBB'.

The placement of the ratings on Rating Watch Negative is due to the possibility that Detroit (the city) will have to make significant termination payments related to interest rate swap agreements totaling $800 million in notional value on the Detroit Retirement Systems Funding Trust COPs. The size of the termination payments is reportedly about $400 million but is subject to change based on movements in interest rates. The city is currently in discussions with its swap counterparties. A payment of the magnitude of the current valuation, if required, would notably increase the city's already considerable financial pressures.

Over the next few weeks, Fitch expects to review the ratings based on any developments on the swap terminations, as well as an evaluation of the city's updated credit fundamentals. Fitch is concerned with the city's weak current economic indicators, prospects for further declines in employment and wages, considerable challenges in achieving balanced financial operations as a first step towards eliminating a large accumulated general fund balance deficit, and continued delays in reporting audited financial results.
Nine consecutive operating deficits led to an unreserved fund balance deficit at the end of fiscal 2006 of 11.2% of spending. The fiscal 2007 comprehensive annual financial report has not yet been released, after several delays, making evaluation of the status of the deficit difficult. The city's unemployment rate for November 2008 was 17%, incorporating a 3.9% decline in the number of workers employed. Debt levels are above average on a per capita basis but exceptionally high as a percent of market value.

Fitch issued an exposure draft on July 31, 2008 proposing a recalibration of tax-supported and water/sewer revenue bond ratings which, if adopted, may result in an upward revision of this rating (see Fitch research 'Exposure Draft: Reassessment of the Municipal Ratings Framework'.) At this time, Fitch is deferring its final determination on municipal recalibration. Fitch will continue to monitor market and credit conditions, and plans to revisit the recalibration in the first quarter of 2009.
Fitch's rating definitions and the terms of use of such ratings are available on the agency's public site, www.fitchratings.com. Published ratings, criteria and methodologies are available from this site, at all times. Fitch's code of conduct, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, affiliate firewall, compliance and other relevant policies and procedures are also available from the 'Code of Conduct' section of this site.

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The case for fixing the economy by doing nothing

Congress will soon debate what kind of economic stimulus package should be passed, but some economists are increasingly wondering whether it's a good idea to approve any stimulus at all.

President-elect Obama again called for quick action Thursday on a yet-unspecified economic stimulus plan that could cost as much $800 billion.
Yet, some argue that the economy is already poised to rebound on its own. They point to steep rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and trillions of dollars in loans and assistance approved by the government in the past year as enough stimulus to get the economy back on track.
In addition, some stimulus skeptics believe that increased government spending will cause more problems than they solve.
Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Portfolios, said the current economic downturn is due to the financial panic that occurred in September after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. That caused a crisis in financial markets and led to the controversial bailout of Wall Street firms and banks and many new programs by the Fed.
Wesbury said consumers and businesses were more reluctant to spend after the collapse of Lehman led to concerns about how other banks would be in danger if a bailout was not passed.
He said he now fears that similar talk about how bad the economy could get if there isn't a stimulus package could cause further declines in spending.
"In the middle of trying to sell a humongous new stimulus package, we'll be creating new panic," he said.
Wesbury acknowledges his view is a minority one, but he's hardly alone. He and Bob Brusca of FAO Economics said they both see signs that the economy might be ready to turn around already, including an unusually large drop in initial jobless claims this week, and a slight increase in the Conference Board's December reading on business activity in the service sector.

Lower taxes now = more taxes later

Other economists expressed concerns about the longer-term damage that could be done to the economy by spending so heavily to fix short-term problems.
Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, an investment firm specializing in overseas investments, wrote in a research note the stimulus debate has not done enough to focus on the cost to taxpayers that will come from the programs.
"The truth is that the only way out of this mess is less government, more savings, and increased production," Schiff wrote. "Obama's plan is a recipe for economic ruin."
Wesbury said he is pleased by various tax cut proposals being discussed as part of the plan, but he is worried that taxpayers will still have to eventually foot the bill for all the new government spending.
He said the only way to pay for stimulus is by taxing those who are productive, joking that the plan is more like a Ponzi scheme than any creation of wealth.
"Every time we bail somebody out, we have to get that money from somebody else. It's like [Bernard] Madoff," he quipped, referring to the financier accused in a $50 billion securities fraud case.
Other economists added that many of the steps taken so far have not yet had a chance to work. Those efforts may prove to be sufficient enough to stimulate the economy without additional spending.

Can't afford to 'wait and see'
But since there is so much uncertainty about the economy, some think the government can't afford to wait to see what happens next, especially since this recession is much different in nature than previous ones.
"We have an unprecedented financial crisis being met by an unprecedented policy response," said David Kelly, the chief market strategist for JPMorgan Funds. "The problem is, forecasters work off precedent."
Kelly said he's particularly worried that the economic stimulus plans being discussed, such as construction projects, will take too long to make an impact. Even sending out tax rebate checks, as was done last year, won't necessarily spur spending if people are nervous about the economy.

Kelly said he would prefer cash incentives from the government specifically designed for people to go out and buy a car or a house as a way to jump-start those two battered sectors.
He said the incentive program could be set up so that the amount of money available could drop the longer people take to make the purchase. That way, people willing to spend sooner rather than later would be rewarded and the economy could rebound more quickly.

"The big problem here is we've got a wait-and-see economy," said Kelly. "'Wait and see' are the three most dangerous words in economics."
Brusca agreed that there are major risks of the economy continuing to weaken further. He said that even though "there's a case for not doing anything more," Congress can't afford to wait to act.

"It is gambling on something you can't afford to lose," he said. "You run the risk, if you are being patient, of becoming the patient."
Finally, there are some who believe that the actions taken so far by Congress and the Bush administration, like the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, for banks and Wall Street firms, have done little to help consumers and businesses so far.
"You need something to start the engine," said Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research. "Just having a full tank of gas doesn't get you anywhere. TARP is just a full tank of gas."

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Ohio governor says he's open to gambling proposals

Ohio governor says gambling is bad for Ohio but remains open to expansion to help budget

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) -- Gov. Ted Strickland says he believes gambling is bad for Ohio, but he's willing to entertain proposals to expand it to bring in more revenue.

Strickland said Thursday that expansion would not be his preferred course of action but that he wouldn't close his mind to ideas.
The governor's antigambling stance has been one of his core philosophies. Ohio voters have repeatedly voted against putting slot machines at race tracks and allowing casinos, most recently turning down a proposed casino in western Ohio.
The state faces a projected $7 billion budget deficit in the next two-year budget. Gambling interests often approach lawmakers during tough budget times to sell gambling as a way to expand revenue.

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